2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina

2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina

November 3, 2026
 
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Thom Tillis
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election on May 12 if no candidate gets at least 30% of the vote. The winner will succeed Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, who is not seeking re-election after two terms.[1] Democrats have not won a Senate election in North Carolina since 2008.

Background

A swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red Southern state at the federal level. It was also a top battleground state in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The state backed Donald Trump in both elections by 1.3%[2] and 3.2%,[3] respectively.

Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the North Carolina General Assembly and hold a supermajority in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation,[4] as well as both of the state's Senate seats. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2024, where they won half of the state's executive offices.[5]

As an open seat in a swing state, North Carolina is considered a top battleground in deciding control of the Senate in 2026.[6]

Republican primary

Senator Thom Tillis was considered vulnerable to a primary challenger from his right. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party voted to censure Tillis for his support for the Respect for Marriage Act and immigration reform attempts.[7][8] On June 28, 2025, President Donald Trump stated he was considering backing a primary challenger after Tillis voted against a motion to consider the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.[9] The following day, Tillis announced that he will not seek reelection.[1]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Andy Nilsson, retired business owner and high school football coach[16]
  • Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present)[1]

Disqualified but on ballot

  • Margot Dupre, real estate broker[17][18]

Declined

Endorsements

Don Brown
Statewide officials
Michael Whatley

Executive branch officials

U.S senators

Organizations
Thom Tillis (withdrawn)
U.S. senators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Don Brown (R) $145,911 $114,368 $32,383
Richard Dansie (R) $2,410 $1,780 $630
Thomas Johnson (R) $3,560 $1,932 $1,629
Michele Morrow (R) $3,729 $2,094 $1,635
Michael Whatley (R) $5,195,891 $1,458,847 $3,737,045
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Don
Brown
Michele
Morrow
Michael
Whatley
Other Undecided
Change Research (D)[34][A] January 5–7, 2026 530[35] (LV) 6% 4% 36% 3%[b] 51%
Hypothetical polling

Thom Tillis vs. Mark Robinson

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis
Mark
Robinson
Undecided
Campaign Viability Research (R)[36] November 13–15, 2024 800 (LV) 42% 35% 23%

Thom Tillis vs. "Someone Else"

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis
Someone
Else
Undecided
Campaign Viability Research (R)[36] November 13–15, 2024 800 (LV) 31% 36% 33%

Thom Tillis vs. Lara Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis
Lara
Trump
Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[37] November 26–29, 2024 800 (LV) 11% 65% 25%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Don Brown
Republican Richard Dansie
Republican Thomas Johnson
Republican Michele Morrow
Republican Elizabeth Temple
Republican Michael Whatley
Total votes 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Roy Cooper
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Roy Cooper (D) $17,979,856 $5,610,562 $12,369,294
Marcus Williams (D) $1,780 $1,780 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Robert Colon
Democratic Roy Cooper
Democratic Justin Dues
Democratic Daryl Farrow
Democratic Orrick Quick
Democratic Marcus Williams
Total votes 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and perennial candidate[61]

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Brian McGinnis, firefighter[62]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[63] Tossup October 14, 2025
Race To The WH[64] Lean D (flip) January 21, 2026
Inside Elections[65] Tossup August 12, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] Tossup August 12, 2025

Polling

Don Brown vs. Roy Cooper

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Don
Brown (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Other Undecided
Harper Polling (R)[67][B] November 9–10, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 48% 4%[c] 10%

Michael Whatley vs. Roy Cooper

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Michael
Whatley (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Other/Undecided[d] Margin
Race to the WH[68] July 31, 2025 – January 20, 2026 February 6, 2026 31.4% 47.5% 21.1% Cooper +16.1%
RealClearPolitics[69] July 28, 2025 – January 20, 2026 January 20, 2026 38.0% 46.6% 15.4% Cooper +8.6%
Average 34.7% 47.1% 18.2% Cooper +12.4%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Michael
Whatley (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Other Undecided
TIPP Insights (R)[70][C] January 12–15, 2026 1,512 (RV) ± 2.7% 24% 48% 27%
Change Research (D)[34][A] January 5–7, 2026 1,105 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 47% 1%[e] 9%
Harper Polling (R)[67][B] November 9–10, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 47% 4%[c] 10%
Harper Polling (R)[71][B] September 14–15, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 46% 4%[c] 8%
Change Research (D)[72][A] September 2–8, 2025 855 (LV) ± 3.6% 41% 48% 11%
Harper Polling (R)[73][B] August 11–12, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 39% 47% 4%[c] 10%
Emerson College[74] July 28–30, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 47% 12%
Victory Insights (R)[75] July 28–30, 2025 600 (LV) 40% 43% 16%
44%[f] 44% 12%
Hypothetical polling

Thom Tillis vs. Roy Cooper

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Other Undecided
Change Research (D)[76][A] March 31 – April 4, 2025 867 (LV) ± 3.6% 44% 46% 10%
45%[f] 48% 2%[g] 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[77] March 4–5, 2025 662 (V) ± 3.8% 43% 47% 9%
Victory Insights (R)[37] November 26–29, 2024 800 (LV) 44% 45% 11%

Lara Trump vs. Roy Cooper

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Lara
Trump (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Other Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[37] November 26–29, 2024 800 (LV) 44% 46% 10%

Results

2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican TBD
Democratic TBD
Libertarian Shannon Bray
Green Brian McGinnis
Total votes 100.0%

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
  3. ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 4%
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
  6. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ "Would not vote" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

References

  1. ^ a b c Carney, Jordain (June 29, 2025). "Thom Tillis says he will retire following Trump attacks". Politico. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  2. ^ "November 03, 2020 General Election Results by Contest" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  3. ^ "NC - State_Composite_Abstract_Report-Contest.pdf". November 26, 2024. Retrieved December 30, 2024.
  4. ^ State Board of Elections. General election results for Federal offices, 2024. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Archived at Web Archive.
  5. ^ "NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov.
  6. ^ "GOP Sen. Thom Tillis won't seek re-election in North Carolina after drawing Trump's ire". NBC News. June 29, 2025. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  7. ^ Berryman, Kim; Pellish, Aaron (June 11, 2023). "Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is censured by North Carolina GOP delegates at convention". CNN.
  8. ^ Specht, Paul; Doran, Will (November 17, 2024). "Trump nominations put NC's Thom Tillis, the nation's 'most vulnerable' Republican senator, in the spotlight". WRAL-TV. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  9. ^ Jacobs, Ben (June 29, 2025). "Trump threatens Tillis with primary challenge". Politico. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  10. ^ Kingdollar, Brandon (March 22, 2025). "Angry voters demand an audience in Raleigh as Thom Tillis kicks off Senate reelection bid". NC Newsline. Retrieved March 23, 2025.
  11. ^ "2026 Primary Election State Candidates List". ncsbe.gov/results-data/candidate-lists. North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  12. ^ "2026 Primary Election State Candidates List". ncsbe.gov/results-data/candidate-lists. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 15, 2025.
  13. ^ Ingram, Kyle (December 18, 2025). "Far-right activist Michele Morrow enters NC's GOP primary for Senate vs. Whatley". The News & Observer. Retrieved December 18, 2025.
  14. ^ "2026 Primary Election State Candidates List". ncsbe.gov/results-data/candidate-lists. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 11, 2025.
  15. ^ Gans, Jared (July 31, 2025). "Trump-backed RNC Chair Michael Whatley launches North Carolina Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved July 31, 2025.
  16. ^ Robertson, Gary (August 9, 2025). "Andy Nilsson ends North Carolina Senate bid after Trump backs Michael Whatley". Associated Press. Retrieved August 11, 2025.
  17. ^ "2026 Primary Election State Candidates List". ncsbe.gov/results-data/candidate-lists. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 11, 2025.
  18. ^ WRAL: Votes for Republican US Senate candidate won't count in 2026 primary, NC elections board rules
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  20. ^ Pellish, Aaron (July 1, 2025). "Hudson rules out bid to replace Tillis". Politico. Retrieved July 1, 2025.
  21. ^ "Murphy won't make Senate run, affirms 2026 reelection bid". The Daily Reflector. July 18, 2025. Retrieved July 18, 2025.
  22. ^ Doran, Will (January 31, 2025). "Mark Robinson drops lawsuit against CNN, says political career may be over". WRAL-TV. Retrieved January 31, 2025. Robinson said Friday he wouldn't run for Senate or any other office in 2026
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  26. ^ Bacharier, Galen (June 29, 2025). "North Carolina's U.S. Senate race is open. Who's running, who's not and who could jump in". NC Newsline. Retrieved June 30, 2025. Former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker...took himself out of the running Sunday evening, saying he was 'solely focused' on his nomination process to be ambassador-at-large for international religious freedom
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  32. ^ "Featured". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved July 1, 2025.
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  35. ^ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (January 22, 2026). "Morning Digest: Minnesota GOP recruits an upgrade for Senate but still faces a daunting race". The Downballot. Retrieved January 22, 2026.
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  43. ^ Doran, Will (December 16, 2025). "Cooper says he'd support banning stock trades for top federal officials". WRAL-TV. Retrieved December 19, 2025.
  44. ^ a b Robertson, Gary (July 29, 2025). "Wiley Nickel exits North Carolina Senate race the day after Roy Cooper announces candidacy". Associated Press. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
  45. ^ Shaffer, Josh (September 16, 2025). "Former US Rep. Wiley Nickel jumps into Wake DA race to succeed Lorrin Freeman". Raleigh News & Observer. Retrieved September 17, 2025.
  46. ^ Altimari, Daniela (December 1, 2025). "North Carolina Rep. Don Davis will run for reelection from his redrawn district". Retrieved December 2, 2025.
  47. ^ a b Doran, Will (July 8, 2025). "As Roy Cooper ramps up profile, Jeff Jackson makes US Senate decision". WRAL-TV. Retrieved July 8, 2025.
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Official campaign websites